Area NWS Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS62 KILM 122314
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
714 PM EDT Wed May 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure will move off to the east tonight. High
pressure will build down from the north through Thursday with
cool northeast winds. High pressure will bring sunshine and a
slightly cool weekend, with a more pronounced warming trend
likely by the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Edits minor, mainly fine tuning of POP distribution far interior
versus coast, where a notable gradient of precipitation chances
will cut through the forecast area, with an overall NW to SE
drying trend in the cards this evening and overnight. No other
changes of note.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure just south of Cape Fear will continue off the coast
this evening. NE flow behind the exiting low will strengthen briefly
with cold air advection strengthening overnight. Expect showers to
taper off from NW to SE across the region after sunset as
overnight lows to drop into the upper 40s. While the low exits off
to the NE, a weak shortwave will spawn several additional low
pressure centers along the stationary front to our south. The
stalled front will remain well south of the area and the associated
low pressures will likely remain far enough offshore that limited
shower activity is expected on Thursday with the best chance
remaining close to the immediate coastline. Clouds and cooler
temperatures will continue however with highs in the mid and upper
60s. Clouds begin to clear late Thursday as the frontal boundary
finally leaves our sphere of influence ahead of building high
pressure. Cool and clear by Friday morning as winds slowly weaken
overnight. Overnight lows well below average still: upper 40s to
around 50 expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build down from the Great Lakes with cool
and dry weather bringing increasing sunshine Fri into Sat and
light northerly winds. Temps will return to the mid 70s with a
slight warming trend from Fri into Sat. Large diurnal swings
expected with a drier air mass in place leading to overnight
lows within a few degrees of 50 most places. Shortwave rotating
through the northeast CONUS could produce a few clouds through
the period, but any pcp should remain well north or well off to
the southeast associated with wave of low pressure along
lingering front. Overall pleasant weather expected Fri into the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure shift off the Delmarva coast early Sunday with an
onshore return flow developing. A W-NW flow through the mid to
upper levels may produce some clouds across the area into
Sunday, but overall expect a a dry weekend with warming temps
into Monday in a SE to S return flow as high pressure moves
farther off the coast. May see shortwave pushing a front
south Mon night into Tues, but not confident at all about this.
Overall should see mid to upper trough shift eastward with
ridge building slowly eastward over the Southeast into the
middle of next week. May end up just seeing an increasing chc of
sea breeze related convection into midweek in a warmer and more
humid airmass. Temps should return toward normal into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR and IFR ceilings should be fully expected overnight, an
favroed over NE SC moreso, as SC received substantially more
rainfall than NC. Even so, the cool influx of chilled marine air
will bring ceiling restrictions throughout the forecasty area.
Occasional -RA will periodically reduce visibility to below 3SM.
NE winds this TAF cycle, mainly 7-11 knots, but gusting to 20 kt
at times between 13z-20z. Heavy rainfall is not expected.

Extended Outlook...High pressure with VFR overspreads the region
thursday night and Friday, and well into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday night...Breezy NE winds continue to bring
deteriorating marine conditions this afternoon and evening. An
additional surge of NE winds will bring winds to 20-25 knots and
gusts to 30-34 knots as the low pressure responsible for
stratiform rain passes offshore. Stalled frontal boundary
remains well to our south on Thursday, but high pressure
building out of the Great Lakes region will maintain a
compressed gradient through late Thursday evening. As such,
Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through late
Thursday night or Friday morning with NE winds 20-25 knots. Seas
currently 4-7 feet will become a more uniform 4-6 feet Thursday
and Thursday night as the fetch and duration reaches its peak.

Friday through Monday...
Wave of low pressure will move off to the east Friday as high
pressure builds down from the Great Lakes. Seas up in the 3 to 5
ft range will subside into and through the weekend as NE winds
veer around to the east as the high migrates toward the Delmarva
coast. Overall winds and waves will diminish. The high will move
off the coast by Monday with winds veering around further to the
SE to S.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...8
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...Colby
MARINE...RGZ/21

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion