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000
ABNT20 KNHC 201701
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Claudette, located inland over east-central Georgia.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Brown

Summary for Tropical Depression Claudette (AT3/AL032021)

...CLAUDETTE STILL PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE  FLASH FLOODS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
 As of 2:00 PM EDT Sun Jun 20
 the center of Claudette was located near 33.9, -83.5
 with movement ENE at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression Claudette Public Advisory Number 12A

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 201742
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021
 
...CLAUDETTE STILL PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE 
FLASH FLOODS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF ATHENS GEORGIA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM W OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere across the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Claudette was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 83.5 West.
The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28
km/h).  An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with some
increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the system should continue to move across
portions of the southeastern U.S. through tonight, move over the
coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday,
and pass near or just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some re-strengthening is expected tonight, and Claudette is
forecast to become a tropical storm again late tonight or early
Monday over eastern North Carolina.  Further strengthening is
possible over the western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday.
Claudette is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by late
Tuesday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is
1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL:  Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches
across the eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle into North
Florida, southern Georgia, central and coastal South Carolina into
eastern North Carolina through Monday morning.  Flash, urban and
small stream flooding impacts, as well as new and renewed minor
river flooding are possible across these areas.
 
Storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated 15 inch amounts
was observed in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle.
 
For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the
WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
NC/VA Border to Cape Lookout, NC...1-3 ft
Cape Lookout, NC to Little River Inlet, SC...1-2 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area late tonight or early Monday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and Monday.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of
Georgia and the Carolinas.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 12

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 201441
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032021
1500 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N  84.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  70 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N  84.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N  84.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.4N  81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.8N  76.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 38.0N  71.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE  70SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 41.1N  66.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE  90SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 44.3N  61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE  90SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N  84.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021  

467 
WTNT43 KNHC 201442
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021
 
Surface observations and visible satellite imagery show that the 
center of Claudette is moving across central Georgia this morning.  
Although the deep convection near the center has waned overnight, 
loose convective bands are evident over portions of North and South 
Carolina, and to the southeast of the center across southeastern 
Georgia and northern Florida.  There have been a few wind reports of 
20-23 kt along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina within the 
past couple of hours, with the higher reports occurring at some 
elevated towers.  The initial wind speed is maintained at 25 kt, but 
the strongest winds are well removed from the center and occurring 
mainly over water. 

Claudette is beginning to accelerate east-northeastward with an 
initial motion estimate of 070/15 kt.  There has been no change to 
the track forecast reasoning.  Claudette should continue to 
accelerate east-northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough 
moving into the central United States.  The center of the cyclone 
should be near the coast of North Carolina Monday morning, and then 
pass well offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday afternoon and 
Monday night.  The track guidance remains in very good agreement and 
the updated NHC forecast is very close to the previous official 
foreast.  

As the large circulation of Claudette moves off of the southeastern 
United States coast later today and tonight, winds will increase 
along and offshore of the coast, and the system is expected to 
regain tropical-storm status by Monday morning.  Additional 
re-strengthening is foreast on Monday and Monday night while the 
cyclone moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream.  After that 
time, the system is expected to quickly transition to an 
extratropical cyclone, and the global models show the post-tropical 
cyclone opening up into a trough of low pressure by Wednesday 
morning. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various 
intensity aids and the modest deepening indicated by the global 
models.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash 
flooding across eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle, North 
Florida, and southern Georgia today, and into the Carolinas through 
Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are 
possible across these areas. 

2. A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of Georgia and 
the Carolinas.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 33.8N  84.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 34.4N  81.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  21/1200Z 35.8N  76.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  22/0000Z 38.0N  71.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  22/1200Z 41.1N  66.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 44.3N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Tropical Depression Claudette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021


000
FONT13 KNHC 201442
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032021               
1500 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   X(22)   X(22)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   8( 8)   8(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X  14(14)   6(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X  20(20)  10(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X  17(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X  25(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X  21(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X  22(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X  17(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  2   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Tropical Depression Claudette Graphics


Tropical Depression Claudette 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 17:42:37 GMT

Tropical Depression Claudette 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 15:22:37 GMT

Local Statement for Wilmington, NC

Issued at 1104 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021


Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at 1112 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021