Tropical Cyclone Activity

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Current Tropical Discussion For Pacific Basin

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121104
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles west of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A small low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south
of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. Although upper-level winds are currently
only marginally conducive for the development of a tropical cyclone,
environmental conditions are likely to become more favorable for the
formation of a tropical depression during the next couple of days
while the system moves quickly west-northwestward to westward, well
south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)

...CRISTINA WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...
 As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 12
 the center of Cristina was located near 20.7, -123.3
 with movement W at 13 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 23

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 120831
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020
 
...CRISTINA WEAKENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 123.3W
ABOUT 870 MI...1405 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 123.3 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 
hours, and Cristina will likely degenerate into a remnant low on 
Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 23

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 120830
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020
0900 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 123.3W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 123.3W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 122.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.9N 125.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.2N 127.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.6N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.1N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.6N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 123.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 23

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 120834
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020
 
Conventional satellite and scatterometer data indicate that 
Cristina has weakened during the past several hours.  Deep 
convection has become fragmented near the center of the cyclone, 
with only a small amount in the eastern semicircle.  A blend of the 
satellite estimates from TAFB/SAB gives an initial wind speed of 40 
kt for this advisory, and this value is also quite close to a 
recent scatterometer pass as well.  

Cristina should gradually lose strength during the next few days 
due to a combination of very cool waters and increasing shear, 
along with nearby dry air.  These factors will likely cause the 
storm to transition into a non-convective remnant low on Monday.  
The intensity forecast is lowered from the previous one, mostly due 
to the decreased initial intensity, and the remnant low timing is 
earlier as well.
 
The storm is moving a little north of due west, or 275/11.  A 
well-defined subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific should keep 
this general motion going for the next several days.  The model 
guidance has changed little since the last cycle, so no significant 
changes were made to the track forecast.  None of the global models 
hold onto the low-level circulation for long beyond 72 hours, so 
dissipation is now shown by day 4.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0900Z 20.7N 123.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 20.9N 125.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 21.2N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 21.6N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0600Z 22.1N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  14/1800Z 22.6N 135.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0600Z 23.0N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020


000
FOPZ15 KNHC 120831
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020               
0900 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 125W       34 10   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
20N 130W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics


Tropical Storm Cristina 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 08:32:53 GMT

Tropical Storm Cristina 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 09:24:42 GMT